My 2009 predictions for Major League Baseball:
Like last year, the key races will be in the East in both leagues. In the N.L the Mets have fixed the back-end of their bullpen, but their rotation and corner outfielders are a mess. They don’t have enough. In the other divisions, the Cubs will outlast the Cardinals, pulling away in early September. The West race will last much longer, but the Dodgers have the offense to prevail.
In the A.L. I think the Rays will slide slightly from last year, but the Red Sox will deal with injuries and the Yankees will see less-than-expected production from their free agents. The pitching and hitting will surprise for the Indians, holding together long enough to pull it out in the end. The West won’t be close.
I’m picking the Phillies to repeat, defeating the Red Sox in the World Series. I admit I’m clouded by homerism, but the team already had the talent. Now it has the experience. The leaders in the clubhouse won’t be satisfied just to win it once. There will be the usual roller-coaster ride, but the Phillies finish it again.
For extra fun, the N.L. will win the All-Star game to give the Phillies the advantage in the World Series. So, Phillies in six.
I’m a little skeptical concerning your prediction about the Yankees. I’d like it to be true, it’s what I’m hoping for, but I need to see the regular season get started first. The Rays certainly have a solid team built, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they dominate the AL East again this year.
All in all though, I’m having trouble finding much to disagree with you on. Even though there’s a small doubt I have concerning the Phillies, it still seems to make sense. Manny is a machine, but no man can carry an entire team on his back and last season proved that. The Mets and Cubs both seem to collapse in spectacular fashion year after year. I just don’t know.
Either way, your predictions seem pretty solid to me. I’m just incredibly happy baseball is back. I live for this time of year.
Full disclosure: I’m a Red Sox fan. So if your World Series prediction turns out to be true, discussion should get… interesting.
I’m skeptical of the Yankees because I don’t think Sabathia can repeat his second-half performance last year. He’ll come close, though.
The real problem is Burnett. He’s a statistically-better Carl Pavano. He’ll spend 1/3 to 1/2 of the season injured. Then what? Joba has potential to be a force in the rotation, but he’ll have a learning curve.
Throw in a declining Jeter and a shaky outfield and I’m not convinced.